MetaTrader 4 Trading Platform

Your Pre Market Brief for 08/27/2020

Your Pre Market Brief for Thursday August 27th 2020

You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub.
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Published 3:00 AM EST / Updated as of 3:30 AM EST
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Stock Futures:
Wednesday 08/25/2020 News and Markets Recap:
Thursday August 27th 2020 Economic Calendar (All times are Eastern)

TODAY: GDP AND UNEMPLOYMENT!!!!

ALSO PENDING HOME SALES
Overnight News Heading into Thursday August 27th 2020
(News Yet to be Traded 8:00 PM - 4:00 AM EST)
End of Day and After Hours News Heading into Thursday August 27th 2020
(News Traded 4:00 PM - 8:00 PM EST)
Offering News
Note: Seeking A url's and Reddit do not get along.
Upcoming Earnings:
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Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
Other Useful Resources:
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub
It is up to you to judge the accuracy and veracity of the above before trading. I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information in this thread.
submitted by Cicero1982 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Your Pre Market Brief for 07/24/2020

Pre Market Brief for Friday July 24th 2020

You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub.
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Updated as of 3:30 AM EST
-----------------------------------------------
Stock Futures:
Thursday 07/23/2020 News and Markets Recap:
Friday July 24th 2020 Economic Calendar (All times are Eastern)
(Home Sales and Oil Rig Count Today)
News Heading into Friday July 24th 2020
NOTE: PLEASE DO NOT YOLO THE VARIOUS TICKERS WITHOUT DOING RESEARCH. THE TIME STAMPS ON THE FOLLOWING ARTICLES MAY BE LATER THAN OTHERS ON THE WEB. THE CREATOR OF THIS THREAD COMPILED THE FOLLOWING IN A QUICK MANNER AND DOES NOT ATTEST TO THE VERACITY OF THE INFORMATION BELOW. YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR VETTING YOUR OWN SOURCES AND DOING YOUR OWN DD.
COVID-19 Stats and News:
Macro Considerations:
Most Recent SEC Filings
Other
-----------------------------------------------
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
Other Useful Resources:
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub
It is up to you to judge the accuracy and veracity of these headlines before trading.
submitted by Cicero1982 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Huawei and FRSX - Silent Market Penetration.

I'm going to keep this as short as humanly possible. This sits in a speculative arena since publicly-traded companies are not allowed to confirm the thoughts of the public, even if they're on the dot. However, they always try to leave you a trail of crumbs to find the missing pieces of information, and so far no one else has gone to the same lengths to dissect what was given to us yesterday. This took a very long time to put together.
Very briefly so you know who FRSX is:
FRSX is in the technology and autonomous driving industry. They create software and physical hardware such as cameras and sensors for the use of larger (car) companies. They are also developing COVID-19 thermal sensors with pending patents, but I'm not even going to talk about that right now.
Very briefly so you know who Huawei is:
Huawei is one of the largest and most famous/infamous companies in the entire world. They are one the original reasons why Chinese and U.S. trade tensions ran so high. Because they sparked controversy of stealing/copying intel from the U.S. and posing as a foreign threat to the economy.
They are a massive tech conglomerate with intense market share (more than Apple in China). Many of you have probably used one of their products.
--------------------------------------------------
Here is the step-by-step process of how I figured out who that unnamed “multi-billion dollar Chinese tech company” is in their latest order and moving forward.
Step 1. Press Release From Yesterday - Introductory Order from a “multi-billion dollar Chinese Tech Company”
Start with the basics. Any company that’s not Chinese is out. Any company under $2 billion valuation is out. Any company not in the tech sector is out. Any company that doesn't operate on a global scale is out. Any company without an Autonomous Vehicle subdivision is out.
Spoiler: This is Huawei, who has become increasingly active in the race for autonomous driving market share.
Step 2. FRSX Germany Tier 1 Auto Supplier - FRSX products were showcased and successfully demoed in Germany. They received an introductory order from a Tier 1 German auto supplier involved in the $1 Billion USD Autonomous Vehicle/Truck market.
After hours of research, this supplier is Veoneer, who supplies AV components for Volkswagen/Audi and a handful of other companies within Huawei’s AV plan. (see below).
Step 3. Huawei - Autonomous Driving Plans for Germany and China (2020-2022). -
Huawei's Chief Strategy Architect, Dang Wenshuan, told the Financial Times that Huawei will be providing autonomous power and components for Germany's Volkswagen/Audi, and China's GAC Group, Beijing New Energy Automobile and Changan Automobile.
(you need to pay for this information, but it’s not expensive)
Step 4. Due to the current politics and long-lasting economic tension between the U.S. and China, Huawei is under serious trade restrictions from the U.S. But this is an israeli corporation.
Two years ago they were banned from the U.S. to send a message to China. FRSX is an Israeli company, and if Huawei wants to uphold their agreement to consistently provide AV components, they have limited options unless they want to start from the ground up.
Additionally, just this week the U.S. and China shut down each other’s consulates in Houston and Chengdu out of spite? Yeah. Not a good look for their political friendship, but potentially great for FRSX.
Step 5. FRSX Enters Partnership with FLIR to develop and distribute FRSX's Quad-sight Camera
This is a MARKETING AND DISTRIBUTION partnership from FLIR to market the same camera that was ordered from supposed Huawei and Veoneer. This benefits FRSX the most as FLIR’s bluechip status helps put the quad-sight camera in a stronger spotlight.
FLIR already holds AV connections to Volkswagen/Audi, Mercedes, and BMW, and works in Autonomous Vehicles. They are partnered with Veoneer as well, the company who ordered right before Huawei.
Step 6. Tencent, NIO, and Mobileye. NIO and Tencent have partnered with Mobileye as their camera technology instead of FRSX, therefore eliminating Tencent as the other "Multi-billion dollar Chinese Tech company with an Autonomous Vehicle Subdivision".
Tencent currently owns over $2.25 Billion dollars in NIO. The two giants (Huawei and Tencent) have worked together before on different tech projects, but this one is now a competition.
Step 7. Connect the dots and eliminate the variables.
Roadmap of Connections
After using the parameters provided by FRSX, the list was narrowed down to a handful of companies (all strong contenders due to the fact that they had to be a multi-billion dollar tech company to begin with.) The search for elevating factors such as citations of German/Chinese/Huawei/FRSX AV ventures helped us paint a road map of the connections between companies in the AV sector.
What do these orders mean? FRSX has several orders from AV ventures who are trying to gather and test the components for their future autonomous driving ventures. Their partnership with FLIR, direct orders from Tier 1 Supplier, Veoneer, and a company that fits the parameters of Huawei, signifies potential penetration into this market, which is all traders care about: Potential.
This is going to take time to develop, similar to CLSK. They also have earnings in two weeks for those who love an earnings swing. Their COVID-19 projects/pending patents also deserve their own separate speech, but this is where the money is for a shot at true relevancy.
submitted by Iskippedfaceday to pennystocks [link] [comments]

SOAC - The next best thing besides a SPAC ESG ETF

SOAC - The next best thing besides a SPAC ESG ETF
Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) has risen greatly in popularity in recent time. With many factors (including Covid) raising awareness around ESG it would appear there has never been a better time to invest in this market trend/values (besides maybe six months ago).
Government subsidies, decarbonization, climate change, industrial/infrastructure upgrades, technological advancements, ESG popularity, greenwashing and police brutality are but a few of the catalysts favouring ESG focused companies (ETFs, funds and SPACs like SPAQ/SOAC). The recent growth in EV market, solar stocks, renewable energy, Tesla, the Juneteenth stock’s and the green energy market (including SPACs - NKLA SHLL SPAQ) are but a few of the benefiters of this “movement” to date.
It’s not just day trading millennials (beckys/RH) who love this stuff but hedge funds are also benefiting from this trend (that is here to stay). It might be a personal belief of mine coupled with my passion for environmentalism but market trends do not lie (although can pop) – and if I can profit from this, why not?
SPAQ SHLL SOAC FMCI BMRG HCCH NKLA BLNK DGLY SOLO EVSI NIO UONE BYFC FMCI BYND RUN WKHS TSLA SHRM.. - a few quick/recent examples of companies with strong ESG verticals absolutely crushing the market. I watched the rise of DKNG (Atlanta fan haha) and NKLA (no product lol) but took a pass because I didn’t fully understand SPACs at the time - don’t be that guy..
Furthermore, ESG funds tend to outperform traditional investments (during downturns - like covid – and some SPACs were a safe haven (because of something called Escrow).
It seems like we need a SPAC ETF ESG focused on some of the above mentioned.. more like needed it six months ago (imagine the returns $$$)??
Very Basic (and inconclusive without further) Market Research:
https://preview.redd.it/67m3itponva51.png?width=548&format=png&auto=webp&s=b54b45c60f193d10497d083b8fe48f10a99fa1be
https://preview.redd.it/02f5mfjpnva51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=45d491986dfef9b679cf2b394fddc53e83446437
https://preview.redd.it/g8f9ronqnva51.png?width=281&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb8e19903d0c8ed4553fc077babc251289975aea
![img](1cqt9q0rnva51 " ")
https://preview.redd.it/xvu3qj0snva51.png?width=556&format=png&auto=webp&s=66bf7b398ae3673f4a48f3afa84dfaeafb34981d
https://preview.redd.it/5hs57mstnva51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2f83830413fd05281870b02741f668f719010f5
https://preview.redd.it/qq9tuekunva51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=2824c94c9fcc096d2c379842d4d7bddea1584191
https://preview.redd.it/vaea1p6vnva51.png?width=508&format=png&auto=webp&s=74934a581fe32c1059a45d031d8b45341a3cd5c1
** all info sourced in links**
“A poll … by JP Morgan of 50 global institutions with $12.9 trillion under management found that 71% of respondents felt the economic shock of Covid-19 would increase awareness and actions globally to tackle climate change and “high impact, high probability” events like it. “Over the long run, COVID-19 could prove to be a major turning point for ESG investing,” said Jean-Xavier Hecker and Hugo Dubourg, co-heads of ESG and Sustainability at JP Morgan. “
https://www.barrons.com/articles/spartan-fisker-spac-electric-vehicle-stocks-51594646511?mod=hp_INTERESTS_technology&refsec=hp_INTERESTS_technology
The ESG SPAC Space:
There are a few (openly) ESG focused SPACs right now - SOAC is arguably the best. When you invest in a SPAC remember – you are investing in the team ie management, UW, legal and institutional backing (follow the money) C.R.E.A.M.
Sustainable Opportunities Acquisition Corp.SOAC
Structure:
345m - 100% still in Trust18mo term – I like the short term (maybe we see a CCXX or BMRG early announcement)IPO May 6 2020 – Love the confidence of IPOing in the face of Covid½ Warrant/UnitCitigroup running the books soloKirkland and Ellis & Davis Polk and Wardwell are lawyers involvedCrescent term threshold of $9.2
Business Proposal:
“We believe that there are significant, attractive investment opportunities that exist within industries that benefit from strong Environmental, Social and Governance (“ESG”) profiles. While investing in ESG covers a broad range of themes, we are focused on evaluating suitable targets that have existing environmental sustainability practices or that may benefit, both operationally and economically, from our management team’s commitment and expertise in executing such practices. We believe our management team’s experience allows us to evaluate targets in industries such as manufacturing (including auto, building materials), chemicals, services (including waste, environmental, construction), logistics (including transportation, distribution), technology (hardware, software, devices), agriculture (including biofuels) and energy (with focus on renewable generation, utility services, energy efficiency/management), among others. Furthermore, our target universe could include companies undergoing a transition to increase their environmental sustainability profiles, reflecting an opportunity to bring environmentally sustainable practices to companies that may not have historically been focused on environmental sustainability. We believe there is a wide array of companies undergoing this “brown-to-green” transition in our target universe. Companies in our target universe tend to have stable growth rates and would greatly benefit from access to public market capital.”
Management:
“The SOAC management team has extensive experience in operating and managing sustainability initiatives within a wide range of companies and industries throughout the U.S.”
Scott Honour (the one and only**) serves as the Chairman of our board of directors**. Mr. Honour has over 30 years of private equity investment experience and has been involved in over 100 transactions totalling over $20 billion in transaction value. Mr. Honour is Managing Partner of Northern Pacific Group (“NPG”), a private equity firm, which he co-founded in 2012. Prior to that, Mr. Honour was at The Gores Group, a Los Angeles based private equity firm, for 10 years, serving as Senior Managing Director and one of the firm’s top executives. During his time at The Gores Group, the firm raised four funds, totaling $4 billion in aggregate, and made over 35 investments. Mr. Honour also served on the investment committee for The Gores Group. Prior to joining The Gores Group, Mr. Honour was a Managing Director at UBS Investment Bank from 2000 to 2002 and was an investment banker at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette from 1991 to 2000. Mr. Honour began his career at Trammell Crow Company in 1988. Mr. Honour has served on the board of directors of numerous public and private companies including Solar Spectrum Holdings LLC, Anthem Sports & Entertainment Inc., 1st Choice Delivery, LLC, United Language Group, Inc., Renters Warehouse LLC, Real Dolmen (REM:BB) and Westwood One, Inc. (formerly Nasdaq: WWON), and is a co-founder of Titan CNG LLC and YapStone Inc. Mr. Honour earned a B.S. and B.A., cum laude, in Business Administration and Economics from Pepperdine University and an M.B.A. in Finance and Marketing from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
David Quiram serves as our Chief Financial Officer. Dr. Quiram has over 20 years of leadership experience in technology, strategy and finance organizations with a deep understanding of the chemicals, emerging technology, bioscience and energy sectors. Previously, Dr. Quiram served as Head of Financial Planning and Analysis and Tax at GenOn Energy (“GenOn”) from 2017 until 2019 where he was responsible for standing up the financial and administrative functions of GenOn as a stand-alone entity from NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE: NRG). Prior to that, Dr. Quiram served as Head of Investments for Enterprise Services of Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE: HPE) from 2014 until 2017 where he directed investments into products and services. From 2010 to 2014, Dr. Quiram was with Accenture (NYSE: ACN) as a Senior Manager in their Strategy practice focused on transforming utilities, independent power producers, and energy retailers. From 2006 to 2009, Dr. Quiram worked at multiple roles at TXU Energy starting in finance and later served as Vice President of Retail Pricing and Procurement where he led the pricing and hedging for TXU Energy’s retail portfolio. Dr. Quiram began his career at McKinsey & Co where he worked as an Engagement Manager from 2001 until 2005, and as a Research Scientist at DuPont (NYSE: DD) from 1998 to 2001. Dr. Quiram earned a B.S. in Chemical Engineering with Highest Distinction from the University of Virginia, and an M.S. and Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Rick Gaenzle has agreed to serve on our board of directors. Mr. Gaenzle has over 30 years of private equity investment and corporate finance experience; he is the founder and currently serves as a Managing Director of Gilbert Global Equity Capital, L.L.C., the principal investment advisor to Gilbert Global Equity Partners, L.P. and related entities, a $1.2 billion leveraged buyout and private equity fund. Mr. Gaenzle has spent the last twenty-eight years at Gilbert Global and its predecessor entity, completing over 110 direct equity investments, co-investments and add-on acquisitions for portfolio companies. Previously, Mr. Gaenzle was a Principal of Soros Capital L.P., the principal venture capital and leveraged equity entity of the Quantum Group of Funds and a principal advisor to Quantum Industrial Holdings Ltd. Prior to joining Soros Capital, Mr. Gaenzle held various positions at PaineWebber Inc. Mr. Gaenzle currently serves as a Senior Advisor to Impact Delta, an impact-investing and impact-measurement advisory firm; an Operating Partner of NPG; and Chairman of Lake Street Homes, a single-family rental investment vehicle. Mr. Gaenzle holds a B.A. from Hartwick College and an M.B.A. from Fordham University.
Isaac Barchas has agreed to serve on our board of directors. Mr. Barchas is the President and Chief Executive Officer of Research Bridge Partners (“RBP”), a socially-driven investment company, which he founded in 2016. RBP uses both concessionary and nonconcessionary investment to create startup companies based on university research and advance those companies into the venture capital markets. Prior to founding RBP, Mr. Barchas led the Austin Technology Incubator (“ATI”) at The University of Texas at Austin from 2006 to 2016. ATI’s Clean Energy Incubator was the first university clean tech incubation program in the United States. During Mr. Barchas’ leadership, ATI companies raised over $1 billion in the capital markets. Mr. Barchas joined the university from McKinsey & Co., where he worked in the Chicago, Sydney, Auckland, and Dallas offices, from 1996 to 2006 and served on the leadership teams of McKinsey’s North American Healthcare Practice and Global Organization Practice. Mr. Barchas has served on multiple private company boards and on philanthropic boards including Pecan Street Inc., the largest analytically-focused clean energy and climate data consortium in the United States, where he was a founding board member. Mr. Barchas earned a J.D. (honors) and M.A. (Century Fellowship) from The University of Chicago. He received an A.B. from Stanford University (honors and Phi Beta Kappa).
Justin Kelly has agreed to serve on our board of directors. Mr. Kelly is currently the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Winslow Capital Management, LLC (“Winslow Capital”), Nuveen’s center of excellence for growth investing. Mr. Kelly also serves as lead portfolio manager on the firm’s flagship U.S. Large Cap Growth Strategy. Mr. Kelly has been with Winslow Capital for over two decades and has transformed the firm from a single strategy, niche investment firm to a thought leader globally in growth equity investing with four strategies. Prior to joining Winslow Capital in 1999, Mr. Kelly was an equity analyst at Investment Advisors in Minneapolis. Prior to that, Mr. Kelly worked at Prudential Bache, from 1993 to 1996 as Investment Banker, and Salomon Brothers, from 1996 to 1997 as Investment Banker. Mr. Kelly earned a B.S. in Finance/Investments from Babson College.
Our management team will be supported by NPG, a technology and business services focused private equity firm based in Wayzata, Minnesota. NPG has considerable experience investing in ESG related portfolio companies with community impact, workplace diversity and integrity, and environmental resource management acting as cornerstones to key investment decisions. NPG has offset its carbon footprint to net zero, achieving CarbonNeutral® status. The partners of NPG have been involved in acquisitions, financings and advisory transactions totaling over $20 billion in transaction value and have significant experience investing across a variety of economic cycles and a track record of identifying high-quality assets, businesses and management teams with significant resources, capital and optimization potential. We believe that we will benefit from NPG’s prior experience.”
PRESS RELEASE
ESG RESOURCES
CEO BREIF INTERVIEW
https://www.greenspac.com/ceo-scott-leonard-explains-why-now-is-the-right-time-for-a-spac/

SPAC Risks:
SPAC’s tend to be 50/50 after merger IMOPotential EV or ESG bubble might be formingDoes anyone have an example of a SPAC in the last 15 years (or later) that has liquidated and didn’t pay out?(I honestly haven’t looked)I see 0.1% risk in SPAC shares/units long term (thanks to escrow)
Final Thoughts:
Future (disruptive) ESG companies (like PureCycle) might want to try and avoid previous mistakes (like UBER) by going the public via the SPAC route... Its kind of a thing these days (thank you Covid) and helps them to make more money faster, price their deal properly/more efficiently and gain (those all-important wall street) connections – I see you SPAQ .. also anyone else see spacs drop in the WSJ?
Completely speculative possible ESG SPAC’s – IPOC/IPOB, HCAC/JIH, GMHI/NPA, SBE/ALUS/TDAC, **KCAC/**SSPK, or JWS/PTSH? Who else are we missing?? Who else will pivot like SHLL, SPAQ, HCCH or get a BlackRock PIPE??
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice and I have positions in some of the above.
TLDR: ESG trend is here to stay and SOAC is a ESG SPAC with great a great team
**check out the discord link for more info, resources and tools**
submitted by GhostfacexProdigy to SPACs [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 22nd, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on smallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 22nd, 2020.

The stock market is running out of steam with reopening trades fading and economic data ‘uneven’ - (Source)

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to reassure markets next week the central bank will do whatever it takes to help the economy heal. That should be enough to keep investors moving into stocks that benefit from an economic rebound and push the S&P 500 into the green for 2020.
The stock market, so eager to put the entire blow from the pandemic behind it, is now coming to terms that a “V-shaped” recovery might be too rosy a scenario.
With recent spikes in coronavirus cases and fluctuations in the economic data, the market seems to be stuck in a range amid elevated volatility. Market analysts said investors should expect more turbulence ahead because the economic recovery is most likely to be bumpy.
“The market was priced for a continuation of improvement and I think that’s overstating what’s going to happen,” said Brian Levitt, Invesco’s global market strategist. “We are going to have episodes of cases rising. We are going to have a very slow and uneven improvement in the jobs market.”
After soaring more than 40% from the March lows, the S&P 500 turned sideways in the past two weeks, trading at similar levels to early June. The market, which used to turn a blind eye to disastrous news on the thinking that the economy had already bottomed, has become more vulnerable to negative economic headlines as the data begins to give a read on the shape of the recovery.
Stocks came under pressure earlier this week after data showed weekly jobless claims rose more than expected last week, and the number stayed above 1 million for the 13th consecutive week.
And on the virus front, California, Texas, Florida and Arizona have reported an uptick in new infections and hospitalizations amid the reopening. Apple said Friday that it’s again closing some stores in Florida, North Carolina and Arizona due to the spikes in coronavirus cases, which sparked a sell-off in the market, especially among retail stocks.
“The economy is going to need more help to bounce back in months to come,” said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. “For now, volatility and choppy markets remain our base case as an uneven economic recovery likely unfolds.”

‘Rolling Ws’

The rally in those popular reopening trades — airlines, cruise lines and hotels — is seemingly losing steam. Shares of American Airlines and Delta posted their second straight weekly losses. So did Carnival, Norwegian Cruise and MGM Resorts. Those stocks were once the high-beta leaders of the market comeback as investors bet that a successful reopening would take hold.
“Although the stock market was suggesting a V-shaped recovery, the more likely scenario is rolling Ws,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said in a note.
A similar market pattern happened during the financial crisis, pointed out by Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. After stocks rallied nearly 40% from the 2009 bottom, the market was range-bound for about seven weeks so the fundamentals could catch up, Colas noted.
From a technical perspective, Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, is watching if the S&P 500 can break above its recent high of 3,232 or drop below the 3,000 threshold or its 200-day moving average of 3,018 as of Friday.
“Whichever way it breaks...should be an very important development in trying to determine how this critical juncture in the stock market will be resolved,” Maley said in a note.

Fed can’t prevent volatility

While the flattening virus curve played a big role in the market rebound, it’s no denying that the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented stimulus has been a key driver in lifting stocks from the coronavirus slump. The central bank unleashed another weapon in its arsenal this week, saying it will start buying individual corporate bonds.
As comforting as it is to have the Fed’s support, the central bank can only do so much to ease investor fears.
“The Fed can’t prevent the volatility we’re seeing in stocks,” Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest, said in a note. “It will likely take years for the economy to fully recover and there remain other uncertainties on the path ahead. As such, investors may continue to struggle with this mismatch between markets and the economy before seeing the case for new highs.”
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reminded investors again this week in his semiannual testimony before Congress that “significant uncertainty remains about the timing and strength of the recovery.”
Many on Wall Street have also warned that extended policy measures including injection of trillions of cheap money would lead to problems down the road such as hyperinflation.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

100 Days

100 days ago today on March 11th, the WHO made it official and declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. Markets were already under a lot of pressure before the WHO declared the pandemic, but the 100 days since will probably go down as some of the craziest 100 days we'll ever experience, not only in the market but in general society as well. More than enough ink and pixels have been spent discussing the societal impact at large, so we'll spare you and just focus on the markets.
While much of the declines were already in the rearview mirror by the time the WHO made its announcement, equities still had a steep decline in the immediate aftermath. The large-cap Russell 1000, for example, fell another 19% to its March 23rd closing low, but after the rebound, the net change since the pandemic was officially declared > has been a gain of 14.3%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As impressive as the Russell 1000's gain has been in the face of the global pandemic, many stocks have done a lot better than that. The table below lists the 25 stocks in the index that have seen the biggest gains so far during this pandemic. Topping the list is Wayfair (W) which has rallied more than 350%. If there is one thing Americans must have realized while they were stuck at home under lockdown it was that they needed some new furniture! Behind Wayfair, two other stocks have more than tripled and both were beaten down stocks from the Energy sector that were trading at less than $2 per share on March 11th. A number of familiar names standout including Moderna (MRNA), Twilio (TWLO), DocuSign (DOCU), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Etsy (ETSY), but looking through the list, there's really a diverse group of names ranging from bombed-out stocks from the Energy sector (8 stocks), Consumer names (7 stocks), and the ever-popular software stocks from the Technology sector (6 stocks). It's definitely been a rocky road for the markets over the last 100 days, but for anyone who had these names in their portfolio, they aren't complaining. Click here to view Bespoke's premium membership options for access to our weekly Bespoke Report which includes an update to our Stocks for the COVID economy portfolio that was released on March 11th.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P 500 Industry Group Breadth Remains Positive

Equity markets have become a bit wobbly in the last week or so, but breadth, in terms of large-cap industry groups, still remains pretty robust. Relative to their 50-DMAs, all 24 S&P 500 industry groups still have rising 50-DMAs. When you consider the fact that the 50-day window spans the period going back to early April, a period encompassing most of what was one of the strongest 50-day rallies on record, the fact that every industry group has a rising 50-DMA isn't all that surprising.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even though all their 50-DMAs are rising, not every industry group is currently trading above its 50-DMA. While the reading briefly reached 100% in late May and early June, two industry groups have since pulled back below their 50-DMAs, putting the percentage at a still impressive 91.7%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The table below summarizes industry group performance showing YTD performance, where each one is trading relative to its 50-DMA, as well as where the group is trading relative to its 52-week high.
As mentioned above, all but two groups (Drugs & Biotech and Food & Staples Retail) remain above their 50-DMAs, and another four are less than 2% above their 50-DMA. If Friday's sell-off deepens into next week, the percentage of industry groups above their 50-DMAs has the potential to quickly sink as low as 75%. Of the 22 industry groups that are above their 50-DMAs, Autos and Tech Hardware are the only two greater than 10% above.
On a YTD basis, the S&P 500 is down less than 4%, but for the vast majority of industry groups, performance has been worse than that. Of the 24 groups shown, 16 are down more than 4% YTD, including eleven that are down over 10%. The worst performers of these losers include Energy, Banks, and Autos. While Energy gets most of the attention for being so weak, Banks are essentially down just as much! On the upside, just two industry groups are up over 10% (Retailers, which is basically Amazon, and Software & Services). Retailing is also the one industry group that is within 1% of a 52-week high and one of seven that is within 4% of a 52-week high.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Credit Market Reversals

We've noted in detail the massive reversals seen in global equities over the last three months, but outside of equities, we've also seen some other massive moves. One example is credit spreads between the yields of corporate and high yield bonds relative to Treasuries.
The top chart below shows the spread in yields between the B of A Corporate Index relative to Treasuries going back to 1997, and below that, we show the 50-day rate of change in the spread. Heading into the COVID-crash, spreads on corporate bonds were less than 100 basis points (bps), meaning the corporate bond index was yielding only 1 percentage point more than comparable Treasury yields. In the span of less than two months, though, spreads surged by more than 300 bps to over 400 bps. Not since the depths of the credit crisis in 2009 had we seen spreads widen out more than they did in March. Just as notable as the level is the fact that the speed with which spreads widened during the COVID-crash was similar to the pace during the credit crisis.
While spreads were quick to spike during both crises, they narrowed nearly as fast both times. Going back to 1997, the most corporate spreads have ever narrowed over a 50-day period was in June 2009. Coming in at a close second place, though, the 50-day period ending in early June was nearly as extreme.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Similar to spreads on corporate bonds, the movement in spreads on high yield (junk) credit has been nearly as extreme. While spreads on the B of A High Yield Master Index widened out by only half as much during the COVID-crash as they did during the Financial Crisis, the 50-day move ending in late March was easily more extreme than any other period outside of the credit crisis.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A shown in both charts above, the only time both corporate and high yield spreads narrowed by an amount anywhere close to the amount they narrowed from late March through early June was back in early June of 2009. The chart below of the S&P 500 shows that point from the perspective of the S&P 500. That period in June 2009 was right in the early stages of what turned out to be a multi-year bull market. Given the similar tightening in the credit market now versus back then, should we assume a similar move for equities going forward?
After the last five months, we'll be the first to say that anything is possible. However, while there are plenty of similarities between the moves in credit markets over the last three months versus the first half of 2009, there are also important distinctions. The most important of these has to do with where the S&P 500 is trading right now. The second chart below shows the historical levels the S&P 500 has traded at relative to its all-time high. Even after the initial narrowing of credit spreads from March through early June 2009, the S&P 500 was still more than 40% off its all-time highs, and therefore still had a lot of climbing to do to get out of the hole. Back in June 2009, to get back to its all-time high from October 2007, the S&P 500 still had to rally another 75%. Today, it's a much different picture as the S&P 500 is already within 10% of its February 2020 all-time high. Could we be in the earlier stages of what turns out to be another long-term bull market? Sure. Will the magnitude of the gains be anything like the gains early on in the bull market that began in 2009? It's unlikely.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Very Slow Recovery In Economic Activity Is Continuing

As economies around the country slowly recover from COVID-19 and reopenings proceed, economic activity is slowly recovering. For the hardest-hit sectors, though, the recovery is only inching forward. Security checkpoint volumes at US airports are still down 80% YoY, and the trend of improvement is only set to return travel activity to 50% of 2019 levels in September.
For restaurants, OpenTable data shows covers down by two-thirds from last year, though some of that is because many restaurants remain closed. Among reopened establishments, the number of seated customers are still down almost 40% YoY. About half of restaurants remain closed per the OpenTable data. We discussed this chart and other retail enthusiasm indicators in last night's Closer report, which is available to Bespoke Institutional members.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Leading Indicators Turn Positive

Yesterday, The Conference Board released last month’s reading for its Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of leading data series, which showed a month-over-month increase of 2.8%. As seen in the LPL Chart of the Day, the return to positive territory follows three straight months of negative monthly growth.
”We noted that the pace of the LEI’s deterioration slowed in the April report, potentially suggesting a bottom forming in the US economy,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Yesterday’s print was one of several positive economic data surprises we’ve observed recently, bolstering our optimistic view for economic growth in the second half of the year.”
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the economy still has a ways to go in order to recover from the damage of the prior three months, the composition of May’s LEI advance encourages us. We noted a disconnect in April’s readout in which the financial market indicators tended to be net positive contributors while the “real economy” indicators detracted. May’s release saw a reversal of that trend whereby the economic subindexes played catch-up. Seven of the 10 components were positive contributors led by an improvement in average weekly initial unemployment claims, average weekly manufacturing hours, and building permits. The three negative contributors were the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) New Orders Index, average consumer expectations for business conditions, and the Leading Credit Index.
The most recent LEI release reinforces our view that an economic bottom is likely behind us. Workers starting to return to jobs that they were unable to do remotely had material effects on May’s readout, and if that trend continues, a stock market trading at stretched valuations would have a stronger foundation under it.

3 Charts That Have Our Attention

Stocks have shaken off the 5.9% S&P 500 Index drop last Thursday by gaining three days in a row before yesterday’s modest weakness. While researching and reading this week, three charts stood out that tell us quite a good deal about how investors have reacted during this volatile market and what could be next.
“Incredibly, we saw nearly a third of all investors over 65 years old sell their full equity holdings,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “With stocks now back near highs, this is yet another reason to have a plan in place before trouble comes, as making decisions when under duress can lead to the exact wrong decision.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, according to data from Fidelity Investments, nearly 18% of all investors sold their full equity holdings between February and May, while a much higher percentage that were closer to retirement (or in retirement) sold. Some might have bought back in, but odds are that many are feeling quite upset with the record bounce back in stocks here.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Along these same lines, investors have recently moved to cash at a record pace. In fact, there is now nearly $5 trillion in money market funds, almost twice the levels we saw this time only five years ago. Also, the past three months saw the largest three-month change ever, as investors ran to the safety of cash. If you were looking for a reason stocks could continue to go higher over the longer term, there really is a lot of cash on the sidelines right now.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last, we noted last week that the extreme overbought nature of stocks here is actually consistent with the start of a new bull run, not a bear market bounce, or the end of a bull market. Adding to this, the spread between the number of stocks above their 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average was near the highest level ever. Think about it; with the 45% bounce in the S&P 500, many stocks were above their 50-day moving average, but not nearly as many were above their 200-day moving average. So from a longer-term perspective, there could still be gains to be had.
Sure enough, looking at other times that had wide spreads, they took place near the start of major bull markets. Near-term the potential is there for a well-deserved pullback, but going out 6 to 12 months, stocks have consistently outperformed.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election Year July Performance Tepid

July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September tend to make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and a strong performance in 2013 and 2018 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons (page 74, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2020).
July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months and is the third weakest performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.5% average gain. Dynamic trading often accompanies the first full month of summer as the beginning of the second half of the year brings an inflow of new capital. This creates a bullish beginning, a soft week after options expiration and some strength towards the end.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Election year Julys rank in the bottom half of all election year months. DJIA: 0.5%, 6th worst; S&P 0.4% 6th worst; NASDAQ (since 1972): -0.7% 3rd worst; Russell 2000 (since 1980): -0.2% 3rd worst.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $NKE
  • $RAD
  • $DRI
  • $WGO
  • $MKC
  • $WTI
  • $INFO
  • $ACN
  • $KBH
  • $SOHO
  • $FDS
  • $BB
  • $AVAV
  • $LZB
  • $XAIR
  • $CAAS
  • $MCF
  • $BWAY
  • $SNX
  • $GMS
  • $WOR
  • $QMCO
  • $AFMD
  • $EPAC
  • $WUBA
  • $USAT
  • $NG
  • $PDCO
  • $APOG
  • $PRGS
  • $FUL
  • $AEMD
  • $AIH
  • $YRD
  • $STAF
  • $UFAB
  • $CAMP
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.22.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Monday 6.22.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.23.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.23.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.24.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.24.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.25.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.25.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.26.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.26.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Nike Inc $95.78

Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $8.35 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 95.16% with revenue decreasing by 18.01%. Short interest has decreased by 0.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.9% above its 200 day moving average of $92.17. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,691 contracts of the $102.00 call expiring on Friday, July 10, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Darden Restaurants, Inc. $70.27

Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $1.78 per share on revenue of $1.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($1.68) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 28% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 201.14% with revenue decreasing by 43.92%. Short interest has increased by 33.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 108.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 27.4% below its 200 day moving average of $96.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,882 contracts of the $70.00 call and 814 contracts of the $80.00 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Rite Aid Corp. $12.41

Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.38 per share on revenue of $5.60 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.35) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 171.43% with revenue increasing by 4.23%. Short interest has increased by 11.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.6% below its 200 day moving average of $12.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,617 contracts of the $14.00 call expiring on Friday, June 26, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 18.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 21.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Winnebago Industries, Inc. $68.36

Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.41 per share on revenue of $325.94 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.35) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 135.96% with revenue decreasing by 38.38%. Short interest has increased by 12.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 156.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.4% above its 200 day moving average of $46.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 583 contracts of the $55.00 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

McCormick & Company, Incorporated $172.20

McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.14 per share on revenue of $1.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.18 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.72% with revenue decreasing by 0.91%. Short interest has decreased by 27.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.4% above its 200 day moving average of $160.35. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

W&T Offshore Inc. $2.57

W&T Offshore Inc. (WTI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:45 PM ET on Monday, June 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $129.93 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue increasing by 11.93%. Short interest has increased by 95.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.8% below its 200 day moving average of $3.88. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

IHS Markit Ltd. $72.03

IHS Markit Ltd. (INFO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.67 per share on revenue of $1.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.68 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.63% with revenue decreasing by 7.53%. Short interest has decreased by 27.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 44.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.4% above its 200 day moving average of $69.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Accenture Ltd. $201.55

Accenture Ltd. (ACN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.84 per share on revenue of $10.94 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.89 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.66% with revenue decreasing by 1.44%. Short interest has increased by 20.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.6% above its 200 day moving average of $190.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 5, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,740 contracts of the $190.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sotherly Hotels Inc. $2.96

Sotherly Hotels Inc. (SOHO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.16 per share on revenue of $16.30 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 26% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 48.39% with revenue decreasing by 65.60%. Short interest has increased by 2,813.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 43.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 39.4% below its 200 day moving average of $4.88. The stock has averaged a 3.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

KB Home $32.29

KB Home (KBH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $1.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.49 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.76% with revenue increasing by 14.50%. Short interest has decreased by 2.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 65.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.6% above its 200 day moving average of $31.18. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead smallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Cant have EVs without the EV Infrastructure

Cant have EVs without the EV Infrastructure
There is no doubt (almost) all of you have been witnessing the current EV hypetrain/market trend. One thing I often see overlooked is the lack of infrastructure in place. Without this our beloved SHLL, SPAQ, NKLA and many others will struggle to reach full potential market capitalization.
Lucky for us governments around the world have taken notice, climate change/decarbonization is accelerating the movement and it seems like every othernweek we have new EV play IPOing.
BIG money is being invested into sustainable infrastructure. The latest World Economic Forum Report on the Future of Nature and the Economy is calling for over $3 trillion USD in funding and the creation of over 100 million jobs in this sector alone!
“(By) 2030, global demand for new (traditional and sustainable) infrastructure could amount to more than $90 trillion (while) the global electric vehicle charging station market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 41.79% to 44.5% and reach $55.348 billion USD (by 2026).”
“(NY State) is set to create more than 50,000 charging stations and will largely be funded by the state’s investor-owned utility companies, with the total budget capped at $701 million through 2025 … (while Florida State recently announced plans to) increase the number of publicly accessible fast chargers by more than 50%.”
“The Moving Forward Act, in the transportation committee, will focus on building new infrastructure that will meet with the demands of mitigating climate change, according to the bill. This will dedicate $1.5 trillion over the next five years to reimagining transportation across the nation on the metropolitan level by providing resources to the agencies that run them.”
Highlights from the bill:
- Authorizes $25 billion in funding for the Postal Service for the modernization of postal infrastructure and operations, including through capital expenditures to purchase delivery vehicles, processing equipment, and other goods. The section reserves $6 billion for the purchase of new vehicles.
- LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLES.—Beginning in fiscal year 2025, 100 percent of the total number of light-duty vehicles acquired by a Federal entity for a Federal fleet shall be alternative fueled vehicles, of which—‘‘(i) at least 50 percent shall be zero emission vehicles or plug-in hybrids in fiscal years 2025 through 2034; ‘‘(ii) at least 75 percent shall be zero emission vehicles or plug-in hybrids in fiscal years 2035 through 2049; and ‘(iii) 100 percent shall be zero emission vehicles in fiscal year 2050 and there after. ‘‘(B)
- A rebate program for replacement of pre-existing electric vehicle supply equipment at a single location shall be the lesser of— (i) 75 percent of the applicable covered expenses; (ii) $1,000 for covered expenses associated with the purchase and installation of non-networked level 2 charging equipment; (iii) $2,000 for covered expenses associated with the purchase and installation of networked level 2 charging equipment; or (iv) $25,000 for covered expenses associated with the purchase and installation of networked direct current fast charging equipment.
- Hydrogen fuel cell refueling equipment shall be eligible for a rebate under the rebate program. All requirements related to public accessibility of installed locations shall apply. Of the amounts appropriated to carry out the rebate program, not more than 25 percent may be used for rebates for hydrogen fuel cell refuelling equipment.
- The Secretary may provide financial assistance to a State to develop a State energy transportation plan, for inclusion in a State energy conservation plan under section 362(d), to promote the electrification of the transportation system, reduced consumption of fossil fuels, and improved air quality.
- Deploy a network of electric vehicle supply equipment to ensure access to electricity for electric vehicles; and ‘‘(2) promote modernization of the electric grid to accommodate demand for power to operate electric vehicle supply equipment and to utilize energy storage capacity provided by electric vehicles.
- The following percentages of the total number of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles acquired by a Federal entity for a Federal fleet shall be alternative fueled vehicles: ‘(i) At least 20 percent in fiscal years 2025 through 2029. ‘‘(ii) At least 30 percent in fiscal years 2030 through 2039. ‘‘(iii) At least 40 percent in fiscal years 2040 through 2049. ‘‘(iv) At least 50 percent in fiscal year 2050 and thereafter.
https://preview.redd.it/3dpl2lvd69e51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=22e20820868479b61dfa970d325f7edfa5302000
https://preview.redd.it/0okpvqxe69e51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea5a2962d51abd3922819dd8eb25169d4114b909
As you can now see the US government is putting some serious money into the EV infrastructure. After all – what would be the point of the EV hype train without the infrastructure?
Which states will announce expansion plans next? How much money will they throw at it? What government subsidies will help consumers transition to EV? Which publicly traded companies are set to benefit? BLNK(W), EVSI(W), PLUG (LINKS TO INVESTOR INFO) and WKHS among others. SPACs include – SHLL, SPAQ, NKLA, FVAC, and potentially KCAC, HCAC, JIH, IPOB/C, SOAC, GSAH, JWS, PSTH and many more.
Lesser talked about companies that stand to benefit: BP Chargemaster, ABB, Eaton, General Electric, Schneider Electric, ChargePoint, Inc., Tesla, ClipperCreek, SemaConnect, Inc., AeroVironment Inc., Delphi Automotive LLP, Leviton Manufacturing Co., Webasto, and Siemens.
https://preview.redd.it/jwn55cbg69e51.png?width=477&format=png&auto=webp&s=f759c35b5a2c6fd462af48cee8329ef51f1b40bb
https://preview.redd.it/y2u2rr0i69e51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=27b5c4c302b5146619c61aa2004f6c5251637350
https://preview.redd.it/pt8gozdj69e51.png?width=529&format=png&auto=webp&s=b5ac5ed6c01dcd9adc0bbdc0ec7e30711c6b0ea3
![img](a873rz1k69e51 " ")
https://preview.redd.it/gu2lvyzv69e51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=71e282335a2c340c192d9c922a74b43943961742
“Like many companies, DHL understands the economic and health risks of climate change and transportation-related air pollution. That is why we’ve committed to operating 70% of our first and last mile services with zero-emission solutions globally by 2025.”
“With ever more urgency as businesses navigate a shifting economy and business model in the wake of COVID-19, we support the MOU and forthcoming [action plan] as a means to strengthen the clean transportation market, boost economic development, and improve public health,” the businesses wrote. “A coordinated multi-state approach to implementation of market-enabling initiatives is required to rapidly unlock the long-term savings, climate and clean air benefits of [medium- and heavy-duty vehicle] electrification.”

Extra Links: https://www.plugpower.com/resources/
https://www.ceres.org/news-centepress-releases/businesses-applaud-largest-multi-state-effort-expedite-decarbonization
https://www.ncsha.org/wp-content/uploads/H.R.-2-Moving-Forward-Act-_Fact-Sheet.pdf
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/planetpolicy/
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/parsing-a-decade-of-ev-infrastructure-investments
http://www.digitaljournal.com/p4416774
https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/tw/pdf/2018/03/KPMG-Autonomous-Vehicle-Readiness-Index.pdf
https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/automotive-electric-bus-market-3202
https://brattlefiles.blob.core.windows.net/files/19421_brattle_-_opportunities_for_the_electricity_industry_in_ev_transition_-_final.pdf
https://newclimateeconomy.report/workingpapers
Disclaimer: My portfolio is pure ESG and I own most stocks mentioned in here.
TLDR: You cant have EVs without the infrastructure - BLNK(W), EVSI(W), PLUG, FVAC and WKHS among others. SPACs include – SHLL, SPAQ, NKLA, and potentially KCAC, HCAC, JIH, IPOB/C, SOAC, GSAH, JWS, PSTH and many more.
submitted by GhostfacexProdigy to SPACs [link] [comments]

Covid-19 update Thursday 23rd April

Good morning from the UK. It’s Thursday 23rd April.

Virus news in depth


North Korea was swift to close its borders at the end of January when coronavirus cases in neighboring China began to skyrocket but by the beginning of April North Korea was issuing a firm denial that it had no cases of Covid-19 with Pak Myong-su, a director at North Korea's Central Emergency Anti-epidemic headquarters, telling news agency AFP on Friday 3rd April: "Not one single person has been infected with the novel coronavirus in our country so far. We have carried out pre-emptive and scientific measures such as inspections and quarantine for all personnel entering our country and thoroughly disinfecting all goods, as well as closing borders and blocking sea and air lanes." The claims were flatly rejected by the four star US army general Robert Adams who commented "I can tell you that is an impossible claim based on all of the intel that we have seen," in a joint interview he held with news sites CNN and VOA. Fast forward three weeks and panic buying is reported to have broken out in North Korea according to a report picked up on the well regarded NK News (and consequently repeated on Bloomberg). One source in the report describes empty shelves and a sudden absence of staples like vegetables, flour, and sugar. Locals have been buying “whatever is there,” an expat said, saying that “you can hardly get in” to some stores. Both the expat and another person in Pyongyang said the surge was particularly notable on Wednesday whilst another source said large groups of locals were seen buying big amounts of mostly-imported products in some grocery stores, resulting in abrupt shortages. Demand sharply increased this week, yet another person confirmed, saying they had been told on Tuesday to purchase supplies of some key products. The range of items offered in shops aimed at diplomats has also diminished, they added, noting that in particular, “imported goods (are) running out.”
The situation in North Korea is complicated at the best of times but even more so now with persistent rumours swirling about Kim Jong Un’s health following a heart procedure (he is known to be obese, a heavy smoker and reports suggest ill health has been brought on by overwork). Should he die Kim's demise would risk unwelcome instability in North Korea and with no clear succession plan, his death or incapacitation could cause chaos in a heavily armed and secretive country. Their neighbours to the North are China who already have their hands full with Covid-19 as well as soothing diplomatic relationships with several Western countries over initially denying the outbreak and then failing to maintain quality control on the badly needed PPE exports pouring out of China. A destabilising North Korea is going to be the last thing Chinese President Xi Jinping needs. North Korea may be one to watch over the coming weeks and months.

Over in the USA Forbes is reporting that three states with Republic governors are set to loosen Covid-19 restrictions. South Carolina will allow some retail stores, as well as flea markets, to reopen Monday, Tennessee Governor Bill Lee said the “vast majority” of his state’s businesses can reopen May 1, 2020, and Georgia will permit businesses such as gyms, barber shops and tattoo parlors to resume business on Friday. Forbes points out that common among the states, though, is a lack of strict protocols for businesses to follow, or a way to enforce a given mandate, even as health officials warn the virus could spread rapidly again if stringent restrictions on economic activity and a widespread testing system aren’t in place. On the same topic, Fox News is reporting that Oklahaoma will follow suit too and also partially reopen, in their case hair salons, spas, nail salons and pet groomers will be allowed to open their doors.
Exploring Georgia’s decision a bit further, Forbes says that Governor Brian Kemp has endorsed a free market philosophy that sees the businesses and residents—not the government—as having the ultimate power to decide how to proceed during the pandemic, though the state did order businesses to follow social distancing practices and screen employees for signs of illness; “It is not going to be government that is going to solve the problem; it is the community at large,” Kemp said earlier this month. Not everyone agrees with him; “We need to, as government leaders, step up and give people an incentive to stay home. But there’s nothing essential about going to a bowling alley in the middle of a pandemic,” Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms said Tuesday on MSNBC (Atlanta is in Georgia). Kemp responded to the criticism on Fox News saying, “If people don’t want to open the gym, they don’t have to. But when you close somebody’s business down and take their livelihoods . . . I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.”
It remains to be seen how convinced local residents will be as to how safe it would be to recommence their normal lifestyles. I flagged a Wuhan restauranteer’s story earlier this week - now their lockdown is lifted and people can come and go, he’s finding that whilst his restaurants might be open very few people are venturing out. Forbes for their part highlights a Gallup survey released last Tuesday that showed that just 20 percent of U.S. adults would resume normal activity right away once shelter-in-place orders are lifted. Lifting lockdowns is one thing, recreating the pre-outbreak circular economy quite another it seems.
But what about America’s doctor-in-chief Anthony Fauci’s opinion? Forbes helpfully has that answer: “That could be setting us back,” Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told the New York Times NYT on Tuesday, referring to Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina. “It certainly isn’t going to be helpful”, he added. Patrice Harris, the president of the American Medical Association, said she too was worried about a possible second wave of infections in the fall on the lines of Redfield's warning to The Washington Post. "I'm worried about a second wave to come sooner. I'm really worried about those states who are relaxing some of the stay-at-home regulations earlier. We could get a second wave even earlier than the fall. That's very concerning," she told CNN's Wolf Blitzer.
As for President Trump’s stance on the matter, the president reiterated that his administration has established benchmarks that states should clear before they begin the reopening process. The rules recommend 14 days of declining new infections, as well as 14 days of decling covid-like syndromic cases and influenza-like illnesses, before moving to the reopening phase Kemp has called for. "I told the governor of Georgia, Brian Kemp, that I disagree strongly with his decision to open certain facilities which are in violation of the Phase I guidelines for the incredible people of Georgia," Trump said. "At the same time, he must do what he thinks is right," Trump continued. "But I disagree with him on what he's doing."
Were a significant spike to come about through the fall (autumn) it could have serious implications for the upcoming elections in November 2020. As well as the election for the office of the President of the United States, all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate are being contested. Notably, the governorships for the four states mentioned above are not being contested this time around but there may be a question whether it’s safe enough to even physically hold the elections if there were a severe outbreak at the time. If interested in the situation around that scenario, try this article here.
Back to the economy to finish this bit off; the best-case scenario following aggressive reopening in Southern states, in contrast with more hard-hit epicenters in the North like New York and Michigan, is that it could create test cases of how to reignite the economy while keeping the disease at bay. That would require most warnings by medical and public health experts to be wrong. Opening up now is a huge risk. Just because the curve of infections is flattened does not mean it cannot rise again since the disease has no proven therapies and there is so far no vaccine.
If you’re American and want to know more about your own state’s position on reopening, CNN has a breakdown here.

Virus news in brief


Today’s sources: The Guardian, CNN, BBC (unless stated otherwise).
















Supply chain news in depth


Failure to extend Brexit talks ‘very risky’, say UK forwarders - Aircargonews reports that UK freight forwarder association BIFA has said that the government’s refusal to extend trade deal talks with the European Union is “very risky” given the coronavirus outbreak. BIFA said that even before the pandemic, there were concerns among BIFA members that the 11-month transition wouldn’t leave enough time to prepare for a potential no deal, with talks between the UK and the EU only getting back underway this week. Robert Keen, BIFA director general, said: “In light of the huge issues involved with a sharp change in trading conditions at the start of 2021, particularly if that were to coincide with another Covid-19 outbreak, we think an extension looks increasingly likely. “There has been little meaningful consultation with UK trade regarding the policies and procedures required in order to ensure that trade with the EU can continue relatively uninterrupted post December 31st 2020. “Trade deals are typically multi-year exercises, but in this case, the UK and EU realistically have until October to agree on terms, allowing time for ratification. And while formal talks are continuing, many of the civil service resources previously assigned to support negotiations have been reallocated to deal with the coronavirus emergency response.”
(Cont’d) Keen explained: “Having had their businesses knocked sideways by the virus, many of our members have furloughed staff whilst they work out how they can keep their businesses afloat. “It is unlikely that their companies and the clients they serve will have the capacity to increase readiness for a sharp change in trading conditions in 2021. “In light of those things and with very little information from government on when restrictions on key sectors of the economy are likely to be lifted, and the as yet unknown economic damage done to the sector and wider economy, BIFA members are in no position to respond to a second massive shock if there is significant change in the terms of trade with the EU at the end of the year, because the government has stuck to its guns over the transition period.” “We believe that refusing to even consider extending the transition period is very risky and together with a growing chorus of Brexit commentators, think an extension to the transition period remains likely, and it is really only a question of ‘when’.” The Loadstar has picked up the same story here.

Supply chain news in brief













Good news section


I didn’t find any, sorry...

Donations

Several asked if they can send me $/£/€ via Patreon (in some cases because I've saved them time or money, others for no reason at all). I don't need the cash (that's lovely though) but as you may have read above, food bank charities are getting really hit hard with all this panic buying. Please consider giving whatever you'd have given me to a foodbank charity instead:
UK: https://www.trusselltrust.org/
France: https://www.banquealimentaire.org/
Germany: https://www.tafel.de/
Netherlands: https://www.voedselbankennederland.nl/steun-ons/steun-voedselbank-donatie/
Italy: https://www.bancoalimentare.it/it/node/1
Spain: https://www.fesbal.org/
Australia: https://www.foodbank.org.au/
Canada: https://www.foodbankscanada.ca/
USA: https://www.feedingamerica.org/
Thanks in advance for any donations you give. If there's foodbank charities in your country and it's not listed above, please suggest it and I will include it going forward.

Virus stats


I hope to publish them today, but being very honest it’s pretty unlikely and if I do get time it won’t be until late evening UK time (so around 10 hrs from now). I'd like to throw up the graphs for both infections and death rates for the four states that want to open because gut instinct tells me they haven't peaked yet so why they'd want to reopen is beyond my understanding.
submitted by Fwoggie2 to supplychain [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 22nd, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 22nd, 2020.

The stock market is running out of steam with reopening trades fading and economic data ‘uneven’ - (Source)

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to reassure markets next week the central bank will do whatever it takes to help the economy heal. That should be enough to keep investors moving into stocks that benefit from an economic rebound and push the S&P 500 into the green for 2020.
The stock market, so eager to put the entire blow from the pandemic behind it, is now coming to terms that a “V-shaped” recovery might be too rosy a scenario.
With recent spikes in coronavirus cases and fluctuations in the economic data, the market seems to be stuck in a range amid elevated volatility. Market analysts said investors should expect more turbulence ahead because the economic recovery is most likely to be bumpy.
“The market was priced for a continuation of improvement and I think that’s overstating what’s going to happen,” said Brian Levitt, Invesco’s global market strategist. “We are going to have episodes of cases rising. We are going to have a very slow and uneven improvement in the jobs market.”
After soaring more than 40% from the March lows, the S&P 500 turned sideways in the past two weeks, trading at similar levels to early June. The market, which used to turn a blind eye to disastrous news on the thinking that the economy had already bottomed, has become more vulnerable to negative economic headlines as the data begins to give a read on the shape of the recovery.
Stocks came under pressure earlier this week after data showed weekly jobless claims rose more than expected last week, and the number stayed above 1 million for the 13th consecutive week.
And on the virus front, California, Texas, Florida and Arizona have reported an uptick in new infections and hospitalizations amid the reopening. Apple said Friday that it’s again closing some stores in Florida, North Carolina and Arizona due to the spikes in coronavirus cases, which sparked a sell-off in the market, especially among retail stocks.
“The economy is going to need more help to bounce back in months to come,” said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. “For now, volatility and choppy markets remain our base case as an uneven economic recovery likely unfolds.”

‘Rolling Ws’

The rally in those popular reopening trades — airlines, cruise lines and hotels — is seemingly losing steam. Shares of American Airlines and Delta posted their second straight weekly losses. So did Carnival, Norwegian Cruise and MGM Resorts. Those stocks were once the high-beta leaders of the market comeback as investors bet that a successful reopening would take hold.
“Although the stock market was suggesting a V-shaped recovery, the more likely scenario is rolling Ws,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said in a note.
A similar market pattern happened during the financial crisis, pointed out by Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. After stocks rallied nearly 40% from the 2009 bottom, the market was range-bound for about seven weeks so the fundamentals could catch up, Colas noted.
From a technical perspective, Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, is watching if the S&P 500 can break above its recent high of 3,232 or drop below the 3,000 threshold or its 200-day moving average of 3,018 as of Friday.
“Whichever way it breaks...should be an very important development in trying to determine how this critical juncture in the stock market will be resolved,” Maley said in a note.

Fed can’t prevent volatility

While the flattening virus curve played a big role in the market rebound, it’s no denying that the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented stimulus has been a key driver in lifting stocks from the coronavirus slump. The central bank unleashed another weapon in its arsenal this week, saying it will start buying individual corporate bonds.
As comforting as it is to have the Fed’s support, the central bank can only do so much to ease investor fears.
“The Fed can’t prevent the volatility we’re seeing in stocks,” Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest, said in a note. “It will likely take years for the economy to fully recover and there remain other uncertainties on the path ahead. As such, investors may continue to struggle with this mismatch between markets and the economy before seeing the case for new highs.”
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reminded investors again this week in his semiannual testimony before Congress that “significant uncertainty remains about the timing and strength of the recovery.”
Many on Wall Street have also warned that extended policy measures including injection of trillions of cheap money would lead to problems down the road such as hyperinflation.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

100 Days

100 days ago today on March 11th, the WHO made it official and declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. Markets were already under a lot of pressure before the WHO declared the pandemic, but the 100 days since will probably go down as some of the craziest 100 days we'll ever experience, not only in the market but in general society as well. More than enough ink and pixels have been spent discussing the societal impact at large, so we'll spare you and just focus on the markets.
While much of the declines were already in the rearview mirror by the time the WHO made its announcement, equities still had a steep decline in the immediate aftermath. The large-cap Russell 1000, for example, fell another 19% to its March 23rd closing low, but after the rebound, the net change since the pandemic was officially declared > has been a gain of 14.3%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As impressive as the Russell 1000's gain has been in the face of the global pandemic, many stocks have done a lot better than that. The table below lists the 25 stocks in the index that have seen the biggest gains so far during this pandemic. Topping the list is Wayfair (W) which has rallied more than 350%. If there is one thing Americans must have realized while they were stuck at home under lockdown it was that they needed some new furniture! Behind Wayfair, two other stocks have more than tripled and both were beaten down stocks from the Energy sector that were trading at less than $2 per share on March 11th. A number of familiar names standout including Moderna (MRNA), Twilio (TWLO), DocuSign (DOCU), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Etsy (ETSY), but looking through the list, there's really a diverse group of names ranging from bombed-out stocks from the Energy sector (8 stocks), Consumer names (7 stocks), and the ever-popular software stocks from the Technology sector (6 stocks). It's definitely been a rocky road for the markets over the last 100 days, but for anyone who had these names in their portfolio, they aren't complaining. Click here to view Bespoke's premium membership options for access to our weekly Bespoke Report which includes an update to our Stocks for the COVID economy portfolio that was released on March 11th.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P 500 Industry Group Breadth Remains Positive

Equity markets have become a bit wobbly in the last week or so, but breadth, in terms of large-cap industry groups, still remains pretty robust. Relative to their 50-DMAs, all 24 S&P 500 industry groups still have rising 50-DMAs. When you consider the fact that the 50-day window spans the period going back to early April, a period encompassing most of what was one of the strongest 50-day rallies on record, the fact that every industry group has a rising 50-DMA isn't all that surprising.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even though all their 50-DMAs are rising, not every industry group is currently trading above its 50-DMA. While the reading briefly reached 100% in late May and early June, two industry groups have since pulled back below their 50-DMAs, putting the percentage at a still impressive 91.7%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The table below summarizes industry group performance showing YTD performance, where each one is trading relative to its 50-DMA, as well as where the group is trading relative to its 52-week high.
As mentioned above, all but two groups (Drugs & Biotech and Food & Staples Retail) remain above their 50-DMAs, and another four are less than 2% above their 50-DMA. If Friday's sell-off deepens into next week, the percentage of industry groups above their 50-DMAs has the potential to quickly sink as low as 75%. Of the 22 industry groups that are above their 50-DMAs, Autos and Tech Hardware are the only two greater than 10% above.
On a YTD basis, the S&P 500 is down less than 4%, but for the vast majority of industry groups, performance has been worse than that. Of the 24 groups shown, 16 are down more than 4% YTD, including eleven that are down over 10%. The worst performers of these losers include Energy, Banks, and Autos. While Energy gets most of the attention for being so weak, Banks are essentially down just as much! On the upside, just two industry groups are up over 10% (Retailers, which is basically Amazon, and Software & Services). Retailing is also the one industry group that is within 1% of a 52-week high and one of seven that is within 4% of a 52-week high.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Credit Market Reversals

We've noted in detail the massive reversals seen in global equities over the last three months, but outside of equities, we've also seen some other massive moves. One example is credit spreads between the yields of corporate and high yield bonds relative to Treasuries.
The top chart below shows the spread in yields between the B of A Corporate Index relative to Treasuries going back to 1997, and below that, we show the 50-day rate of change in the spread. Heading into the COVID-crash, spreads on corporate bonds were less than 100 basis points (bps), meaning the corporate bond index was yielding only 1 percentage point more than comparable Treasury yields. In the span of less than two months, though, spreads surged by more than 300 bps to over 400 bps. Not since the depths of the credit crisis in 2009 had we seen spreads widen out more than they did in March. Just as notable as the level is the fact that the speed with which spreads widened during the COVID-crash was similar to the pace during the credit crisis.
While spreads were quick to spike during both crises, they narrowed nearly as fast both times. Going back to 1997, the most corporate spreads have ever narrowed over a 50-day period was in June 2009. Coming in at a close second place, though, the 50-day period ending in early June was nearly as extreme.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Similar to spreads on corporate bonds, the movement in spreads on high yield (junk) credit has been nearly as extreme. While spreads on the B of A High Yield Master Index widened out by only half as much during the COVID-crash as they did during the Financial Crisis, the 50-day move ending in late March was easily more extreme than any other period outside of the credit crisis.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A shown in both charts above, the only time both corporate and high yield spreads narrowed by an amount anywhere close to the amount they narrowed from late March through early June was back in early June of 2009. The chart below of the S&P 500 shows that point from the perspective of the S&P 500. That period in June 2009 was right in the early stages of what turned out to be a multi-year bull market. Given the similar tightening in the credit market now versus back then, should we assume a similar move for equities going forward?
After the last five months, we'll be the first to say that anything is possible. However, while there are plenty of similarities between the moves in credit markets over the last three months versus the first half of 2009, there are also important distinctions. The most important of these has to do with where the S&P 500 is trading right now. The second chart below shows the historical levels the S&P 500 has traded at relative to its all-time high. Even after the initial narrowing of credit spreads from March through early June 2009, the S&P 500 was still more than 40% off its all-time highs, and therefore still had a lot of climbing to do to get out of the hole. Back in June 2009, to get back to its all-time high from October 2007, the S&P 500 still had to rally another 75%. Today, it's a much different picture as the S&P 500 is already within 10% of its February 2020 all-time high. Could we be in the earlier stages of what turns out to be another long-term bull market? Sure. Will the magnitude of the gains be anything like the gains early on in the bull market that began in 2009? It's unlikely.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Very Slow Recovery In Economic Activity Is Continuing

As economies around the country slowly recover from COVID-19 and reopenings proceed, economic activity is slowly recovering. For the hardest-hit sectors, though, the recovery is only inching forward. Security checkpoint volumes at US airports are still down 80% YoY, and the trend of improvement is only set to return travel activity to 50% of 2019 levels in September.
For restaurants, OpenTable data shows covers down by two-thirds from last year, though some of that is because many restaurants remain closed. Among reopened establishments, the number of seated customers are still down almost 40% YoY. About half of restaurants remain closed per the OpenTable data. We discussed this chart and other retail enthusiasm indicators in last night's Closer report, which is available to Bespoke Institutional members.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Leading Indicators Turn Positive

Yesterday, The Conference Board released last month’s reading for its Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of leading data series, which showed a month-over-month increase of 2.8%. As seen in the LPL Chart of the Day, the return to positive territory follows three straight months of negative monthly growth.
”We noted that the pace of the LEI’s deterioration slowed in the April report, potentially suggesting a bottom forming in the US economy,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Yesterday’s print was one of several positive economic data surprises we’ve observed recently, bolstering our optimistic view for economic growth in the second half of the year.”
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the economy still has a ways to go in order to recover from the damage of the prior three months, the composition of May’s LEI advance encourages us. We noted a disconnect in April’s readout in which the financial market indicators tended to be net positive contributors while the “real economy” indicators detracted. May’s release saw a reversal of that trend whereby the economic subindexes played catch-up. Seven of the 10 components were positive contributors led by an improvement in average weekly initial unemployment claims, average weekly manufacturing hours, and building permits. The three negative contributors were the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) New Orders Index, average consumer expectations for business conditions, and the Leading Credit Index.
The most recent LEI release reinforces our view that an economic bottom is likely behind us. Workers starting to return to jobs that they were unable to do remotely had material effects on May’s readout, and if that trend continues, a stock market trading at stretched valuations would have a stronger foundation under it.

3 Charts That Have Our Attention

Stocks have shaken off the 5.9% S&P 500 Index drop last Thursday by gaining three days in a row before yesterday’s modest weakness. While researching and reading this week, three charts stood out that tell us quite a good deal about how investors have reacted during this volatile market and what could be next.
“Incredibly, we saw nearly a third of all investors over 65 years old sell their full equity holdings,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “With stocks now back near highs, this is yet another reason to have a plan in place before trouble comes, as making decisions when under duress can lead to the exact wrong decision.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, according to data from Fidelity Investments, nearly 18% of all investors sold their full equity holdings between February and May, while a much higher percentage that were closer to retirement (or in retirement) sold. Some might have bought back in, but odds are that many are feeling quite upset with the record bounce back in stocks here.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Along these same lines, investors have recently moved to cash at a record pace. In fact, there is now nearly $5 trillion in money market funds, almost twice the levels we saw this time only five years ago. Also, the past three months saw the largest three-month change ever, as investors ran to the safety of cash. If you were looking for a reason stocks could continue to go higher over the longer term, there really is a lot of cash on the sidelines right now.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last, we noted last week that the extreme overbought nature of stocks here is actually consistent with the start of a new bull run, not a bear market bounce, or the end of a bull market. Adding to this, the spread between the number of stocks above their 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average was near the highest level ever. Think about it; with the 45% bounce in the S&P 500, many stocks were above their 50-day moving average, but not nearly as many were above their 200-day moving average. So from a longer-term perspective, there could still be gains to be had.
Sure enough, looking at other times that had wide spreads, they took place near the start of major bull markets. Near-term the potential is there for a well-deserved pullback, but going out 6 to 12 months, stocks have consistently outperformed.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election Year July Performance Tepid

July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September tend to make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and a strong performance in 2013 and 2018 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons (page 74, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2020).
July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months and is the third weakest performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.5% average gain. Dynamic trading often accompanies the first full month of summer as the beginning of the second half of the year brings an inflow of new capital. This creates a bullish beginning, a soft week after options expiration and some strength towards the end.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Election year Julys rank in the bottom half of all election year months. DJIA: 0.5%, 6th worst; S&P 0.4% 6th worst; NASDAQ (since 1972): -0.7% 3rd worst; Russell 2000 (since 1980): -0.2% 3rd worst.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 19th, 2020

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6.21.20

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $NKE
  • $RAD
  • $DRI
  • $WGO
  • $MKC
  • $WTI
  • $INFO
  • $ACN
  • $KBH
  • $SOHO
  • $FDS
  • $BB
  • $AVAV
  • $LZB
  • $XAIR
  • $CAAS
  • $MCF
  • $BWAY
  • $SNX
  • $GMS
  • $WOR
  • $QMCO
  • $AFMD
  • $EPAC
  • $WUBA
  • $USAT
  • $NG
  • $PDCO
  • $APOG
  • $PRGS
  • $FUL
  • $AEMD
  • $AIH
  • $YRD
  • $STAF
  • $UFAB
  • $CAMP
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.22.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Monday 6.22.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.23.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.23.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.24.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.24.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.25.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.25.20 After Market Close:

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Friday 6.26.20 Before Market Open:

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Friday 6.26.20 After Market Close:

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NONE.

Nike Inc $95.78

Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $8.35 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 95.16% with revenue decreasing by 18.01%. Short interest has decreased by 0.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.9% above its 200 day moving average of $92.17. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,691 contracts of the $102.00 call expiring on Friday, July 10, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.

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Darden Restaurants, Inc. $70.27

Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $1.78 per share on revenue of $1.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($1.68) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 28% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 201.14% with revenue decreasing by 43.92%. Short interest has increased by 33.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 108.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 27.4% below its 200 day moving average of $96.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,882 contracts of the $70.00 call and 814 contracts of the $80.00 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.

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Rite Aid Corp. $12.41

Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.38 per share on revenue of $5.60 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.35) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 171.43% with revenue increasing by 4.23%. Short interest has increased by 11.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.6% below its 200 day moving average of $12.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,617 contracts of the $14.00 call expiring on Friday, June 26, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 18.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 21.4% move in recent quarters.

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Winnebago Industries, Inc. $68.36

Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.41 per share on revenue of $325.94 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.35) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 135.96% with revenue decreasing by 38.38%. Short interest has increased by 12.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 156.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.4% above its 200 day moving average of $46.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 583 contracts of the $55.00 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.3% move in recent quarters.

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McCormick & Company, Incorporated $172.20

McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.14 per share on revenue of $1.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.18 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.72% with revenue decreasing by 0.91%. Short interest has decreased by 27.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.4% above its 200 day moving average of $160.35. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.

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W&T Offshore Inc. $2.57

W&T Offshore Inc. (WTI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:45 PM ET on Monday, June 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $129.93 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue increasing by 11.93%. Short interest has increased by 95.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.8% below its 200 day moving average of $3.88. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.

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IHS Markit Ltd. $72.03

IHS Markit Ltd. (INFO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.67 per share on revenue of $1.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.68 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.63% with revenue decreasing by 7.53%. Short interest has decreased by 27.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 44.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.4% above its 200 day moving average of $69.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.

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Accenture Ltd. $201.55

Accenture Ltd. (ACN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.84 per share on revenue of $10.94 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.89 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.66% with revenue decreasing by 1.44%. Short interest has increased by 20.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.6% above its 200 day moving average of $190.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 5, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,740 contracts of the $190.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.8% move in recent quarters.

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Sotherly Hotels Inc. $2.96

Sotherly Hotels Inc. (SOHO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.16 per share on revenue of $16.30 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 26% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 48.39% with revenue decreasing by 65.60%. Short interest has increased by 2,813.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 43.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 39.4% below its 200 day moving average of $4.88. The stock has averaged a 3.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.

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KB Home $32.29

KB Home (KBH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $1.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.49 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.76% with revenue increasing by 14.50%. Short interest has decreased by 2.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 65.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.6% above its 200 day moving average of $31.18. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters.

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DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

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